I'll see on you on the bridge, will you hold my hand?

As if that wasn’t enough…

Here’s a link to a lovely PDF download that’ll tell you that, a., Lebanon is on the verge of war, and b., that it’ll be much, much worse than 2006.

Via. here.

Mondays, huh?

United colours of Benetton

Following on from my post about funding, I saw something interesting last night, or rather I saw it again.

While out in Monot for Iftar there were people, kids, burning various objects in the street. I think it was about the electricity situation. Regardless, the Army were out in force.

Driving past a group of soldiers I noticed something.

They had Hummers from America, British Land Rovers and what I believe are Russian / Soviet-era APCs.*

*Edit: Thanks to Tiddles (see the comment) I can confirm that they are some sort of BTR varient. My military geekery remains intact ... and kind of, vaguely, on the ball... I think.*

 Hummers, not just for ganstas

 Land Rovers, mustache not required

Russian BTRs … because you know that 

eight wheels are better than four

The tribulations of being at the whim of so many sponsors down the years. The logistics of it all must beggar belief.

Here’s hoping for a time when the Lebanese Army is given the support it so richly deserves. It is a fine institution that deserves better.

How the other half lives...

While the Lebanese government is forced to open a bank account and accept donations to fund their armed forces, the Israelis have just signed the biggest arms deal in the history of the state.

As I mentioned before, there’s some hope that the US block on funding for the LAF will be lifted, however, some cynics are reporting a timely propaganda boost for the beleaguered Lebanese military.

Whenever the issue of US aid to Israel and Lebanon comes up, the skeptic in me always thinks of the US money that pays for the Israeli bombs that destroy infrastructure that, quite often, organizations like USAID has paid for.

It’s enough to give you a headache.

The cost of guns and on whom to use them

Much has been made of the recent blocking of funding for the Lebanese Army by a group of US congressmen following the recent clash with Israel.

It’s a congressional election year at the moment and, as such, it’ll be difficult for anyone to lift the block, for fear of upsetting influential interest groups in the US. If / when it is lifted, it’ll happen early next year.

The money they’re talking about hasn’t yet been spent, but it has been allocated. So, it doesn’t appear that funding will dry up immediately. However, it’s cause for concern.

The gist of the argument is as follows: The Lebanese Army shot at the IDF. Israel is our ally. Therefore, we shouldn’t fund the LAF.

 It's all about the Benjamins

Now, that makes sense, on a very, very basic level.

However, it also gives the lie to US policy.

US funding revolves around giving the Lebanese a means by which to enhance the sovereignty of the state. At least that’s the view they’re pushing.

However … the one of the main uses of the armed forces of any country is to deter aggression and to defend their borders. Which is exactly what the LAF did. Ok, it seems as if the LAF made a mistake when it opened fire, but cutting off aid is the wrong approach. All it will do is weaken the LAF, making a mockery of past efforts to empower it.

But then the question of US motives comes into play.

Clearly, if the US doesn’t want the LAF to fight Israel (a state with whom Lebanon is at war), who do they want them to fight? … The obvious answer is internal actors, or Syria.

A clash with Syria is off the table and internal actors means Hizballah.

A clash between the LAF and Hizballah, though highly unlikely to occur, would be the first step toward civil war.

Further, given that the clash doesn’t occur, the potential absence of the US opens the door to others. Iran stepping in would merely result in the swapping of one patron for another. While large sectors of Lebanon would possibly applaud this, it surely would mark a significant downturn in Lebanon’s relations with the West.

Is Lebanon at a crossroads? Yes. However, I think it’s clear that the US will do all it can to resolve this. It’s most definitely in their interests to provide some form of internal balance to Hizballah. But then the niggling questions as to their true goals remain.

Lebanon is in the unfortunate position of having to be a client of one side of the great divide, the question is, who do they run with, and what will it mean?

Image credit. 

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Thanks for all the kind comments I’ve received recently by way of Sudan, Australia, Hong Kong, the UAE, the US and Lebanon. As I’ve said before, for me blogging is a form of expression and an excuse to indulge in pseudo-political commentary.  While writing these entries is rewarding enough, it’s the response from readers that makes it particularly interesting for me and, I presume, the majority of bloggers. In any case, thank you for your support. I would greatly appreciate it if you’d pass on a link to anyone you think might be interested.

Tree on Israeli side?

Naharnet is quoting the UN as saying that the tree was on the Israeli side of the Blue Line.

It would appear that the LAF acted in error.

Quoted from the linked article:

UNIFIL military spokesperson Lt. Col. Naresh Bhatt said Wednesday that the tree that was the core of a deadly gunbattle between the Israeli and Lebanese armies is located inside Israeli territory.
Bhatt said investigations were still ongoing into Tuesday's border clashes.

…

"In this area the Lebanese government had some reservations concerning the Blue Line as did the Israeli government at some other locations at the time the Blue Line was identified in the year 2000 as the line of withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon," Bhatt said.
He said Israel confirmed to the U.N. Secretary-General that notwithstanding their reservations identifying the line was solely the responsibility of the U.N. and that both Lebanon and Israel will respect the line as identified.
"The U.N. position is that the Blue Line must be respected in its entirety by all parties," Bhatt stressed.




Investigations are ongoing.



Let’s hope that calm prevails.

Yesterday’s clashes

This is a very measured response on yesterday’s events. Initially, I was raging over the conflict. However, rather than rashly post, I took some time to sit and consider the wider implications.

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Yesterday’s clash between the IDF and the LAF petered out of the course of the afternoon.

My thoughts:

We’re lucky that Hizballah decided not to get involved yesterday. The air is full of tension at the moment and anything to inflame the situation is a bad thing.

However, their announcement that they will get involved if it happens again can only cause the Israelis to pause for thought. That’s also a good thing.

Yes, it’s going to be tense, but the cards are on the table.

As for yesterday’s clash:

I believe it was a mistake.

The Israelis claim that they informed UNIFIL of the decision to perform maintenance of the border fence.

If this is true, then UNIFIL appears to have abjectly failed to pass on information.

Should the Israelis have crossed the border? No, absolutely not. However, if they filed with UNIFIL, it was hardly the kind of act that would have caused this response.

Nevertheless, surely, it was a monumentally stupid idea to conduct maintenance then and there, given the situation.

I feel that both the UN and the IDF failed to act responsibly.

However, I also feel that LAF should not have opened fire.

My conclusion?

The situation is still confused. We don’t know exactly what was going on. The reports from both sides are contradictory. Rather than ascribe this to lies, I think that there was general confusion and uncertainty.

I believe that the UN and IDF made serious errors, in procedure or judgment, possibly both.

However, I also the LAF acted rashly. Yes, they had the right to engage the IDF, but I don’t think they should have.

The key to diffusing this situation will be calm heads. At the moment, Nasrallah appears to the calmest of the lot.

We all know what Israel has done in this country in the past, both recent and more distant. The IDF acted rashly. The Lebanese Army had the right to react as they did, if the reports are correct.

However, the bigger picture here is that there is immense regional pressure at the moment. This clash was the last thing Lebanon needed.

I’ve heard speculation that the IDF did this on purpose, in order to create a situation. I won’t speculate on that, beyond saying that it would be monumentally stupid to do so. I don’t believe that the IDF is ready for another round with Lebanon (read: Hezbollah). They are presently building a missile defense system that is not yet ready. To go to war prior to completion makes no sense.

Let’s hope this blows over.

The long and short of it is this: Was this clash detrimental to the overall chances of avoiding a regional war? Yes. Were the Israelis in the wrong? Most probably. Are we lucky it didn’t escalate? Absolutely.

It’s time for calm heads.

I have the utmost respect for the Lebanese Armed Forces. They are often caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to issues both domestic and international. Now is not the time for a clash with Israel. The only result will be yet more Lebanese dead. The general consensus among experts is that a new war would be more costly than 2006. 2006 was devastating.

As much as it might stick in the throat, as unpleasant as it might be, I believe the only course of action is to step back, take a breath, and ask if Lebanon needs another conflict with Israel. I believe the answer is “no”. As much as it hurts to swallow this, it is the only way.

In any case, yesterday people died. For that, and for the potential pressure it will exert on the region, in very simple terms, I am sad.

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As I said at the top, this is a measured response. I understand the sense of rage in the country and it seems justified. However, I’m also one step removed from these emotions. This is an attempt to give a calm overview of the situation, that might not be overly palatable to many. However, as someone who has chosen to live here, as someone who loves this country, I believe we all need to take a step back and breathe.

Lebanese Army clashes with Israeli Defense Forces

This is just in.

According to various outlets, the Lebanese Army has engaged the IDF near the border town of Adeisseh.

According to reports, the Lebanese Army fired on Isreali troops attempting to cut down trees on the Lebanese side of the border.

The IDF returned fire, injuring at least two people, including a Lebanese soldier and hitting a house in the town.

General updates are on Naharnet’s ticker.

Artillery rounds were still falling five minutes ago (13.00) according to a local source.

Reports state that rockets have been fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel.

Another turn of the screw.