The Stuxnet virus, found mainly in Iran, Germany and China, but which has been spreading rapidly around the world is designed to attack Siemans industrial control systems. These controls manage industrial machinery in anything from nuclear plants to reservoir dams.
The article suggests that the international fall out following the release of the virus will be significant and that, according to sources, it’s all pointing at Israel.
It would that this is the first time a state-made cyber attack has spread so wide. This something entirely new and it'll be interesting to see what happens.
There are ongoing arguments regarding where the tree that sparked the latest confrontation was. UNIFIL and the IDF are standing by claims that it was in the Israeli area.
Regardless, as I posted yesterday, it’s time for cool heads.
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Of much greater import, in the long run, was a speech given by Hassan Nasrallah two nights ago.
Nasrallah
Nasrallah’s speech covered the border clash, but of more importance was his response to the issues surrounding the STL.
The Israeli press has been crowing over how Hizballah will be indicted.
We believe that Israel killed Hariri.
However, due to tensions, we will delay the announcement.
[Hizballah has been leant on by Syria and Qatar in an attempt to get them to keep quiet according to numerous commentaries.]
On Monday, I will release information that will prove Israel killed Rafic Hariri.
We will work with the government to deal with the outcome and to investigate the witnesses who withdrew their testimony.
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Yes, Nasrallah will provide proof that Israel killed Hariri.
Hariri
After staring blankly at my wife, who was giving me the lowdown as the speech was playing, (real time translation of bombastic Arabic political chat being beyond me) I muttered something along the lines of, “Oh shit.”
Yes, following the events of the last few days, Nasrallah is going to drop the bomb (metaphorically-speaking).
The problem with this is that, I would be willing to bet, Hizballah will present their evidence in the public forum. I doubt there will be any effort to allow outsiders a look at the material before the Party broadcasts it. Regardless of whether or not Hizballah have the evidence, it’s going to blow the whole STL out of the water and, potentially, start a war of words with the Israelis... at the bare minimum.
If he has the evidence, then relations between Israel and Lebanon nosedive, the STL's finished, it's credibility ruined. If he's wrong, a substantial proportion of the population will believe him anyway, the Israelis are going to be pissed, and the STL's still dead in the water.
Either way ... it's not going to be pretty.
Given that Lebanon and Israel just fought over a tree*, how dangerous is this going to be?
*Yes, I’m aware it’s much, much more complex than that.
This is a very measured response on yesterday’s events. Initially, I was raging over the conflict. However, rather than rashly post, I took some time to sit and consider the wider implications.
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Yesterday’s clash between the IDF and the LAF petered out of the course of the afternoon.
My thoughts:
We’re lucky that Hizballah decided not to get involved yesterday. The air is full of tension at the moment and anything to inflame the situation is a bad thing.
However, their announcement that they will get involved if it happens again can only cause the Israelis to pause for thought. That’s also a good thing.
Yes, it’s going to be tense, but the cards are on the table.
As for yesterday’s clash:
I believe it was a mistake.
The Israelis claim that they informed UNIFIL of the decision to perform maintenance of the border fence.
If this is true, then UNIFIL appears to have abjectly failed to pass on information.
Should the Israelis have crossed the border? No, absolutely not. However, if they filed with UNIFIL, it was hardly the kind of act that would have caused this response.
Nevertheless, surely, it was a monumentally stupid idea to conduct maintenance then and there, given the situation.
I feel that both the UN and the IDF failed to act responsibly.
However, I also feel that LAF should not have opened fire.
My conclusion?
The situation is still confused. We don’t know exactly what was going on. The reports from both sides are contradictory. Rather than ascribe this to lies, I think that there was general confusion and uncertainty.
I believe that the UN and IDF made serious errors, in procedure or judgment, possibly both.
However, I also the LAF acted rashly. Yes, they had the right to engage the IDF, but I don’t think they should have.
The key to diffusing this situation will be calm heads. At the moment, Nasrallah appears to the calmest of the lot.
We all know what Israel has done in this country in the past, both recent and more distant. The IDF acted rashly. The Lebanese Army had the right to react as they did, if the reports are correct.
However, the bigger picture here is that there is immense regional pressure at the moment. This clash was the last thing Lebanon needed.
I’ve heard speculation that the IDF did this on purpose, in order to create a situation. I won’t speculate on that, beyond saying that it would be monumentally stupid to do so. I don’t believe that the IDF is ready for another round with Lebanon (read: Hezbollah). They are presently building a missile defense system that is not yet ready. To go to war prior to completion makes no sense.
Let’s hope this blows over.
The long and short of it is this: Was this clash detrimental to the overall chances of avoiding a regional war? Yes. Were the Israelis in the wrong? Most probably. Are we lucky it didn’t escalate? Absolutely.
It’s time for calm heads.
I have the utmost respect for the Lebanese Armed Forces. They are often caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to issues both domestic and international. Now is not the time for a clash with Israel. The only result will be yet more Lebanese dead. The general consensus among experts is that a new war would be more costly than 2006. 2006 was devastating.
As much as it might stick in the throat, as unpleasant as it might be, I believe the only course of action is to step back, take a breath, and ask if Lebanon needs another conflict with Israel. I believe the answer is “no”. As much as it hurts to swallow this, it is the only way.
In any case, yesterday people died. For that, and for the potential pressure it will exert on the region, in very simple terms, I am sad.
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As I said at the top, this is a measured response. I understand the sense of rage in the country and it seems justified. However, I’m also one step removed from these emotions. This is an attempt to give a calm overview of the situation, that might not be overly palatable to many. However, as someone who has chosen to live here, as someone who loves this country, I believe we all need to take a step back and breathe.
It’s official, there’ll be war here in around 18 months. According to a report from the US Foreign Affairs council.
Wonderful. It’s a microcosm of the Glen Close factor. You have a great weekend and then you get this.
To summarize (take a deep breath):
Israel and Hizballah are ready to go for each other's throats Hizballah believes that Israel had a role to play in the Hariri tribunal Israel says it doesn’t have anything to do with it Israel says that any aggression from Hizballah will be met with force but it's not interested in war Hizballah says something similar the Israeli cabinet then meets to discuss the potential fall out of the tribunal and in the meantime an NGO reports that the two parties are only holding back because they’re afraid of escalation above and beyond 2006 but it’s all ok because the Saudis, Syrians and Qataris are going to ensure peace and stop the tribunal anyway
*Gasp*
How’s that for Monday morning reading? Pretty much ruined my cornflakes, I can tell you.
Translation: 'We don't like each other. We are going to do something about it in the future. However, we're a little preoccupied at the moment and will get to it at some point in the future.'
... Perhaps that 18 month warning wasn't so far off base...
Naharnet reports Hezbollah MP Nawaf Moussawi as saying, "We must tighten foreign passport control at the airport and elsewhere in the country," Moussawi went on to say, "Every Lebanese and Arab must deal with holders of foreign passports as potential spies."
I'd better not tell the wife.
Thelegalalien
Cheers, Avi. Really appreciate that. Honorary membership of Mossad. Great. Firstly, you steal our passports and then set the beardy brigade after us. I mean, I know we’re not flavour of the month at the moment, what with that little misunderstanding about war crimes and the whole food produce, West Bank-a.k.a.-Israel bumpf, but this is just taking the piss.
