A good friend of mine, in the midst of a rant regarding Nasrallah’s speech the other night, pointed out that it’s probably quite easy to intercept the video transmitted from the drones. Primarily by using this piece of software.
Ah the Internet… what a marvelous invention. I think. Maybe.
Thanks fella.
I'm not endorsing the interception of television signals, nor the pirating of legit channels.
But ... I'm sure it's all tightly regulated here, right....?
So, I watched Nasrallah’s speech last night, along with most of Lebanon. I also read the regular updates here and here.
I must say, after all the anticipation, I was left somewhat deflated. The hype had suggested that there was evidence that Israel had killed Hariri.
There was no such clear evidence.
This is what, in a nutshell, Nasrallah said:
1.Israel has the capability to kill people through clandestine means
2.Israel has done this before
3.Numerous Israeli spies have been arrested recently, they specialised in the following areas: Surveillance, information gathering, logistics and the smuggling of people over the border.
1 and 2 are clearly true. 3? It certainly seems to be true. – But there’s nothing new here.
There was use of video of Israeli UAVs flying over Beirut. The video followed two routes taken in the past by Hariri’s motorcade. He highlighted how they seemed to linger above corners and sharp turns in the road, where the convoy would slow down.
There was also video of confessions by the alleged spies. The only mention of Hariri was from a man employed to watch his residence.
Nasrallah appeared to have backtracked and stated time and time again that this was not an open and shut case. He claimed that this was a “war of public opinion” and that it was odd that, given there was an official investigation, that the Israelis weren’t suspects.
My thoughts:
1.This seems to be a clear step backward from earlier claims of proof
2.Everything was circumstantial
3.There was only one agent linked, in any way, to Hariri
4.Nasrallah has refused to hand over copies of the videos to the international tribunal, saying he will hand it to an independent Lebanese body. As a result, the video cannot be verified or studied Israel undoubtedly conducts UAV surveillance of Beirut, to believe otherwise would be naïve. However, given that the video cannot be analyzed, it is impossible to say how representative the footage is. It was clearly edited (and set to music) by Hizballah for this press conference. How much editing has occurred?
5.Nasrallah openly spoke of the war “of public opinion”. It seems that his only objective here was to cast serious doubt on the Tribunal
Following the speech journalists asked Nasrallah questions. The overall atmosphere could be summed up in the following questions: “Who are you trying to convince?” The journalists were clearly confused as to how he expected them and, by extension, the general population to respond.
To his credit, Nasrallah didn’t duck the issue. He claimed that he was aware the “evidence” was circumstantial and that he was aiming to sway public opinion. Finally, he added that an independent investigation was needed.
After all the build-up I can’t help but feel that it fell a little flat. There was no compelling evidence. Sure, there’s certainly a case for investigating possible Israeli involvement, however, it’s far from clear. Nasrallah was asked why he didn’t show the video from the UAVs earlier, he claimed technical difficulties had prevented him from doing so.
I can’t help but feel that Nasrallah has made a mistake in his handling of this. The Lebanese were, depending on their political persuasion, awaiting clear evidence of Israeli involvement, or a pack of lies. They got neither.
However, then you recall Nasrallah’s statement: He claimed that he was aware the “evidence” was circumstantial and that he was aiming to sway public opinion.
This wasn’t about proof. It was about blowing the Tribunal out of the water. Mission accomplished. There will be enough doubt, and assumptions of Israeli involvement, among the Lebanese to achieve that.
However, the cost, in terms of his credibility outside of his constituency, might prove to be high.
There have been mixed responses, both in Lebanon and abroad, with some arguing that he had some degree of success, other claiming it fell flat.
Regardless, I think this snippet from Al Jazeera sums the situation up nicely:
Nasrallah unveils 'Hariri proof'
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has tried to implicate Israel in the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.
Note the quote marks in the title, note the use of the word “tried” in the text.
The tribunal might be dead, but Nasrallah didn’t come off looking all that convincing.
So, we’ve been waiting with bated breath to see what Nasrallah is going say. Tonight, at 2030 Beirut time, or 1730 GMT, we’ll finally learn what the, supposedly, irrefutable evidence pointing to Israel’s involvement in Hariri’s killing is.
Regardless, the tribunal’s dead.
All that remains to be seen is what Nasrallah has up his sleeve.
I’d be utterly amazed if he managed to convince me that Israel was involved.However, and here’s the worrying thing, this guy is renowned for telling the truth.
That’s a cause for concern.
I think there are three scenarios here:
1.He’s right – Israel did kill Hariri – and he can prove it
2.He’s got information that he regards as conclusive, but the majority don’t
3.He’s been misled
I think number 2’s a fair bet. And, sadly, that’ll be enough to worsen the tension with Israel.
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There are two ways to follow the speech in English. By following this Twitter account, or by this reading this blog.
There are ongoing arguments regarding where the tree that sparked the latest confrontation was. UNIFIL and the IDF are standing by claims that it was in the Israeli area.
Regardless, as I posted yesterday, it’s time for cool heads.
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Of much greater import, in the long run, was a speech given by Hassan Nasrallah two nights ago.
Nasrallah
Nasrallah’s speech covered the border clash, but of more importance was his response to the issues surrounding the STL.
The Israeli press has been crowing over how Hizballah will be indicted.
We believe that Israel killed Hariri.
However, due to tensions, we will delay the announcement.
[Hizballah has been leant on by Syria and Qatar in an attempt to get them to keep quiet according to numerous commentaries.]
On Monday, I will release information that will prove Israel killed Rafic Hariri.
We will work with the government to deal with the outcome and to investigate the witnesses who withdrew their testimony.
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Yes, Nasrallah will provide proof that Israel killed Hariri.
Hariri
After staring blankly at my wife, who was giving me the lowdown as the speech was playing, (real time translation of bombastic Arabic political chat being beyond me) I muttered something along the lines of, “Oh shit.”
Yes, following the events of the last few days, Nasrallah is going to drop the bomb (metaphorically-speaking).
The problem with this is that, I would be willing to bet, Hizballah will present their evidence in the public forum. I doubt there will be any effort to allow outsiders a look at the material before the Party broadcasts it. Regardless of whether or not Hizballah have the evidence, it’s going to blow the whole STL out of the water and, potentially, start a war of words with the Israelis... at the bare minimum.
If he has the evidence, then relations between Israel and Lebanon nosedive, the STL's finished, it's credibility ruined. If he's wrong, a substantial proportion of the population will believe him anyway, the Israelis are going to be pissed, and the STL's still dead in the water.
Either way ... it's not going to be pretty.
Given that Lebanon and Israel just fought over a tree*, how dangerous is this going to be?
*Yes, I’m aware it’s much, much more complex than that.
Two bits of idle ranting … one international, one Lebanese…
Was quite amused to see big Dave wade into the foreign arena with his colossal size 12’s on display. Cameron clearly failed Diplomacy 101. “Screw you Israel, screw you Pakistan, but Turkey? Yeah, we like you. You’re alright. Kurds? Never ‘eard of ‘em. Now, Turkey, if you could just toddle off and chat to I’madinnerjacket about Tehran’s nuclear plans, that’d be fabulous. EU membership? Sure. It’s just around the corner.”
DM's, perfect attire for the aspiring diplomat
Now … I’m no fan of any of the three countries mentioned above … but … this man is “my” (note the use of inverted commas) Prime Minister.
Note to Dave: The littlest dog barks the loudest. Unless you have the nerve and ability to back up what you’re saying, don’t say it.
Kudos on the Gaza remarks, but who are we kidding, it’ll be back to kid gloves fairly soon.
Ah … Lebanon.
As much as I love you, your schizophrenic nature makes living here akin to dating Glen Close. Sure, was probably good in the sack, but then she was also partial to boiling your family pet. There’s even an endearing term for the girlfriend in her honour.
One minute we’re looking forward to summer, the World Cup, England’s premature exit, drinks on the beach and leaving the office at 4.00. … The next minute the annual, “It’s summer, therefore there must be a war” theories start emerging. Now, of course, this is all compounded by the fact that it’s a World Cup year … meaning that, if history is anything to go by, we should all be stocking up on tinned food and bottled water.
And, as a contemporary of mine noted, registering with the embassy would be a good idea. – I note that should the time come, it would be my second evacuation. I’m sure Cyprus has something to recommend it, apart from the ability to conduct civil marriages, but Akrotiri Airbase, where we stayed on the way home, is a little Spartan.
Well, this time around all the talk is of a civil war as opposed to the more recent type. You’ll have to pardon my cynicism, Lebanese predictions are all a little too doom and gloom for my tastes.
Whatever your take on the upcoming report on the Hariri assassination, it promises to be an interesting ride until the allegations, counter claims and conspiracy conspiracies resolve themselves. Zionists, Syrians, Americans, Shiite Lebanese or Sunni Lebanese, Martians, whoever’s behind it all, perhaps it was best to let sleeping dogs lie?
